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Winning Percentage Expectancies
Based On Rating Differences
with thanks to J. Varsoke
H: % of games expected to be won by the
higher rated player
L: % of games expected to be won by the lower rated player
|
Rating Diff. |
H |
L |
|
Rating Diff. |
H |
L |
|
Rating Diff. |
H |
L |
|
Rating Diff. |
H |
L |
|
000-003 |
50 |
50 |
|
092-098 |
63 |
37 |
|
198-206 |
76 |
24 |
|
345-357 |
89 |
11 |
|
004-010 |
51 |
49 |
|
099-106 |
64 |
36 |
|
207-215 |
77 |
23 |
|
358-374 |
90 |
10 |
|
011-017 |
52 |
48 |
|
107-113 |
65 |
35 |
|
216-225 |
78 |
22 |
|
375-391 |
91 |
09 |
|
018-025 |
53 |
47 |
|
114-121 |
66 |
34 |
|
226-235 |
79 |
21 |
|
392-411 |
92 |
08 |
|
026-032 |
54 |
46 |
|
122-129 |
67 |
33 |
|
236-245 |
80 |
20 |
|
412-432 |
93 |
07 |
|
033-039 |
55 |
45 |
|
130-137 |
68 |
32 |
|
246-256 |
81 |
19 |
|
433-456 |
94 |
06 |
|
040-046 |
56 |
44 |
|
138-145 |
69 |
31 |
|
257-267 |
82 |
18 |
|
457-484 |
95 |
05 |
|
047-053 |
57 |
43 |
|
146-153 |
70 |
30 |
|
268-278 |
83 |
17 |
|
485-517 |
96 |
04 |
|
054-061 |
58 |
42 |
|
154-162 |
71 |
29 |
|
279-290 |
84 |
16 |
|
518-559 |
97 |
03 |
|
062-068 |
59 |
41 |
|
163-170 |
72 |
28 |
|
291-302 |
85 |
15 |
|
560-619 |
98 |
02 |
|
069-076 |
60 |
40 |
|
171-179 |
73 |
27 |
|
303-315 |
86 |
14 |
|
620-735 |
99 |
01 |
|
077-083 |
61 |
39 |
|
180-188 |
74 |
26 |
|
316-328 |
87 |
13 |
|
over-735 |
100 |
00 |
|
084-091 |
62 |
38 |
|
189-197 |
75 |
25 |
|
329-344 |
88 |
12 |
|
Find the difference in rating between the two combatants, and see what the
higher-rated player's winning expectancy is. Clearly these percentages
are more likely to be accurate over a series of games, as in a match, while
anything might happen in a single game!
Example 1: Player A is rated 1950, Player B is rated
1880. The difference is 70, which gives Player A a 60% probability of
winning. Over the course of a ten-game match, Player A should expect
to score six points.
Example 2: Garry Kasparov is rated 2817 (as of July
2004). Rustam Kasimdzhanov is rated 2640 (also as of July 2004).
The difference is 177, which gives Kasparov a 73% probability of winning.
Over the course of a ten-game match, Kasparov should expect to score 7 or
7.5 points.
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